25 Year Plan For Fixing A Damaged Australia.
Australia’s energy landscape has become increasingly challenging, with soaring electricity costs placing a significant burden on businesses and households alike.
The manufacturing and construction sectors have been particularly hard hit, struggling to maintain competitiveness in the face of escalating operational expenses.
Despite promises of relief, consumers have seen their power bills rise by an average of $800, a stark contrast to the promised $275 reduction.
This discrepancy has left many Australians questioning the efficacy of current energy policies and their impact on the cost of living.
The effects of these unprecedented electricity prices are most acutely felt by low-income households, who find themselves disproportionately affected by the rising costs.
These vulnerable members of our society, already grappling with financial constraints, now face the additional challenge of managing essential energy needs within increasingly strained budgets.
As we look towards the future, it’s clear that addressing Australia’s energy affordability crisis is not just an economic imperative, but a social one as well.
An overview of the current impacts are as follows:
1. Increased Financial Burden:
a. Low-income households spend a larger proportion of their income on electricity compared to wealthier households.
b. For some, this can be as much as 12-15% or more of their disposable income, especially during the peak of summer and winter, as many areas of Australia are prone to temperature extremes.
2. Reduced Quality of Life:
a. Many low-income families are forced to cut back on essential and leisure activities.
b. For example, they may avoid using heating during winter, leading to discomfort and potential health issues.
3. Food Insecurity: Rising electricity costs can lead to food insecurity as families have to choose between paying their energy bills and buying groceries.
4. Limited Access to Services: High electricity costs can limit access to essential services such as healthcare and education, as families may not be able to afford transportation or other related expenses.
5. Increased Debt and Financial Stress: The financial strain of high electricity bills can lead to increased debt and financial stress, affecting mental health and overall well-being.
6. Energy Inefficiency: Low-income households often live in older, less energy-efficient homes, which can exacerbate the problem as they require more energy to maintain comfortable living conditions.
While the current focus on solar and wind electricity generation is somewhat understandable, I fear that it might have gone too far.
There’s little doubt in my mind that from this day forward, it is far more crucial to recognize the importance of baseload power generation.
A balanced approach that includes diverse energy sources can better address our electricity costs and support the manufacturing and construction sectors.
Addressing our energy challenges may require a collaborative effort across all levels of government and stakeholders to ensure a comprehensive and effective solution.
One thing is for certain, we need to balance environmental ideals with population realities and maybe the first step in all of this is to cut up and recycle all of the green tape in this country.
Why Are The Construction and Manufacturing Industries So Important?
The main thing that needs to be addressed as soon as possible is the generation of cheap, clean and reliable 24/7 baseload electricity supply as it is crucial for the construction and manufacturing industries.
It wouldn’t matter which medium you utilize to get your daily news, it would be at least once a week we are hearing about construction and/or manufacturing businesses that had previously been able to endure for over 30 years, are now closing their doors for the last time as the cost of doing business has become far too expensive.
Especially with the Building Industry’s Many Irrational Challenges the timing of excessive struggles in this industry could not be worse as we need millions of new affordable homes to be built to provide housing for the hundreds of thousands that are immigrating here, only to find that there’s nowhere to live. This situation has exacerbated the already very sad situation with far too many Australian’s being homeless.
Australia needs a very strong and health building industry to create around 1.2 million more homes by the end of 2029 to be built but if building/construction/manufacturing companies keep going out of business, how can this goal be realized?
The construction and manufacturing industries are the backbone of a country’s economy as follows:
1. Economic Development: The manufacturing sector is considered the backbone of economic development for a country. It plays a crucial role in modernizing agriculture and reducing dependence on primary sectors by providing jobs in secondary and tertiary sectors.
2. Infrastructure Development: Heavy industries, including manufacturing and construction, form the backbone of many nations’ infrastructure and development. These industries contribute significantly to building vital infrastructure and stimulating economic growth.
3. Job Creation: Both construction and manufacturing industries are major sources of employment, providing opportunities across various skill levels. This helps in reducing unemployment and poverty, which are critical for a country’s socio-economic progress.
4. Innovation And Technological Advancement: These industries drive innovation and technological progress. For example, the steel industry, which is crucial for construction, has been at the forefront of innovation and economic growth since the 19th century.
5. Economic Stability: Industries spur economic growth and contribute to the stability of national economies through job creation, wealth generation, and tax revenues.
6. Urban Development: Industrial development plays an integral role in shaping urban areas, attracting investment, and creating employment opportunities for local communities.
7. Multiplier Effect: The growth in these sectors has a ripple effect on other industries, benefiting the economy as a whole. For instance, the expansion of e-commerce has amplified the importance of transportation and logistics sectors.
8. Export Potential: Exporting manufactured items boosts trade and brings in much-needed foreign currency, further strengthening a country’s economy.
While it’s important to note that a diverse economy with contributions from various sectors is ideal for overall economic health, the construction and manufacturing industries undeniably play a pivotal role in laying the foundation for a country’s economic growth, infrastructure development, and technological advancement.
The Manufacturing Industry Is Critical To the Construction Industry.
To slightly complicate the importance of these two critical industries, the construction industry’s success and sustainability is underpinned by the costs associated with the manufacturing industry in producing much-needed construction materials, supplies, products, tools, and equipment, as follows:
1. Material Costs:
a. The construction industry heavily relies on materials produced by the manufacturing sector, such as steel, cement, lumber, and other building materials.
b. When manufacturing costs rise due to factors such as raw material scarcity, supply chain disruptions, or increased production costs caused by unprecedentedly high electricity prices, the construction industry bears the brunt of the cost.
2. Supply Chain Interdependencies:
a. The construction industry is deeply interconnected with manufacturing through the supply chain.
b. Any volatility in the availability or cost of manufactured goods directly impacts construction projects.
c. For instance, delays or increased costs in obtaining essential materials like windows, doors, or roofing can extend construction timelines and inflate project budgets.
3. Inflation and Economic Pressures:
a. Inflation affects both manufacturing and construction sectors by increasing the costs of materials, labor, and transportation.
b. As manufacturing costs rise, construction projects become more expensive because contractors must pay more for the materials and supplies they need.
4. Pass-Through Costs:
a. When manufacturing costs are high, these costs are inevitably passed on to the construction industry.
b. Contractors, in turn, pass these increased costs onto their clients, leading to higher overall project costs.
c. This can affect the affordability and feasibility of construction projects, influencing everything from residential housing to large infrastructure developments.
5. Labor and Equipment Costs:
a. Beyond materials, the cost of tools and equipment, which are also products of the manufacturing industry, impacts construction costs.
b. If manufacturing costs for these items rise, construction companies face higher expenses for the tools and machinery necessary for their operations.
The construction industry is very closely linked to the manufacturing industry through the costs of materials, supplies, and equipment.
Why Is Cheap, Clean & Reliable Baseload Electricity So Important?
As electricity costs continue to rise, manufacturing costs will also increase, impacting the construction industry.
These higher costs will ultimately be passed on to end users, affecting the overall cost of large-scale construction projects and new home building during a national housing crisis.
The manufacturing industry requires an uninterrupted, low-cost 24/7 baseload electricity power supply to maintain continuous operations and production processes at a cost that is affordable to their customers.
While solar and wind power can contribute valuable renewable energy for up to 7 hours per day, their intermittent nature and associated new electrical infrastructure costs present rationality challenges.
Ensuring a stable, cheap, clean and reliable electricity supply requires addressing these challenges through a combination of renewable and baseload power sources as follows:
1. Geographical Distribution: Wind and solar farms are often located in remote areas where the natural resources (wind and sunlight) are most abundant. This means that new transmission lines need to be built to connect these remote generation sites to the existing grid.
2. Grid Integration: Integrating renewable energy sources into the grid requires upgrades to the existing infrastructure to handle the variable nature of wind and solar power. This includes investments in energy storage systems and advanced grid management technologies.
3. Capacity and Stability: To ensure a stable and reliable electricity supply, the grid needs to be capable of handling fluctuations in power generation from renewable sources. This often involves reinforcing the grid to manage peak loads and prevent outages.
4. Regulatory and Planning Costs: The process of planning, approving, and constructing new transmission infrastructure involves regulatory hurdles and significant planning efforts, which add to the overall costs
We need manufacturers to have cheap and reliable electricity supply without disruptions due to the sun not shining or because the wind is either not blowing or not blowing at exactly the right speed.
What manufacturers need:
1. Cost Efficiency:
a. Low-cost electricity significantly reduces operational expenses for energy-intensive industries like construction and manufacturing.
b. This allows companies to maintain competitive pricing and improve profit margins.
2. Reliability:
a. A stable and consistent power supply is essential for precision manufacturing and construction processes.
b. Fluctuations or interruptions in power can lead to production errors, equipment damage, and safety hazards.
3. Competitiveness:
a. Countries with access to cheap, reliable electricity have a competitive advantage in attracting and retaining manufacturing and construction businesses.
b. This can lead to increased economic growth and job creation.
4. Electrification Of Processes:
a. As industries move towards electrification to reduce carbon emissions, the availability of affordable 24/7 electricity becomes even more critical.
b. This transition can help reduce reliance on fossil fuels and support sustainability goals.
5. Enabling Advanced Technologies:
a. Many modern manufacturing and construction techniques rely on sophisticated, power-hungry equipment and automation.
b. Cheap, reliable electricity facilitates the adoption of these advanced technologies, improving productivity and quality.
6. Supporting Industry Growth:
a. Access to affordable, consistent power allows construction and manufacturing industries to scale up operations more easily, supporting overall economic growth and development.
7. Energy Storage And Grid Stability:
a. As solar and wind energy sources are revealing to be increasingly problematic for the grid, true baseload power via more traditional means of generation helps maintain grid stability.
b. This ensures a reliable power supply for industries that cannot afford interruptions.
What Can We Do About The Electricity Problem?
For the most part, fixing the issues surrounding the supply and costs associated with Gas is going to be the solution.
I think our future needs to be built on a combination of Natural Gas, Biogas (Poop To Power) & Synthetic Gas Solutions.
At the time of writing this article, around 5 million Australian homes and over 130,000 businesses as well as some electricity generation plants rely on Natural Gas supply.
In total, Australia roughly consumes around 1,600 PJ of gas per year and the usage is broken up as follows:
1. Industrial Usage: Approximately 40-45% and this includes manufacturing, mining, and other industrial processes.
2. Electricity Generation (gas-fired power stations) uses about 20-25% and this usage is a mix of fueling baseload and peaking power plants.
3. Residential (domestic home usage) uses around 10-15% via heating, cooking, and hot water systems.
4. Commercial And Services consumes roughly 5-10% at business offices, shops, hospitals, and other commercial buildings.
5. Transport only uses a small percentage, typically less than 5% and this is on compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles.
6. Other uses make up the remaining percentage.
The problem that I see with this combined 1,600 petajoules of gas usage is that in some areas of Australia, this is costing the end users 24 dollars per gigajoule.
Therefore, with natural gas currently costing $24 per gigajoule, to continue using 1,600 petajoules per year, the annual cost is $38,400,000,000 or $38.4 billion.
The flow on affect of the high costs of natural gas can be seen when we look at Australia’s electricity generation costs.
As we all no doubt understand, Australian energy production has been evolving, with a mix of fossil fuels and renewable sources.
In recent years, there has been a significant increase in renewable energy production, particularly solar and wind power and with that the exorbitant additional costs of transmission and distribution.
Australia roughly consumes 270 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity per year. The total cost to produce electricity in Australia is complex to calculate precisely, as it involves various factors including:
1. Fuel costs (for fossil fuel plants).
2. Capital costs for building and maintaining power plants.
3. Operational and maintenance costs.
4. Transmission and distribution costs.
5. Environmental costs and carbon pricing (where applicable).
The base cost per megawatt-hour (MWh) can vary significantly depending on the source. For example:
1. 24/7 Capable Coal-Fired Power: Approximately AUD 40-80 per MWh.
2. 24/7 Capable Natural Gas: AUD 70-130 per MWh.
3. Intermittent Wind Power: AUD 50-65 per MWh (not including additional costs).
4. Intermittent Solar Power: AUD 45-70 per MWh (not including additional costs).
To estimate the total cost of making Australia’s electricity at the moment, we can use a rough average cost of production across all sources of about $70 per MWh. 270 TWh = 270,000,000 MWh.
270,000,000 MWh × AUD 70/MWh = AUD $18,900,000,000.
Just under 19 billion per year electricity usage which is less than half of the cost of annual gas usage.
So it stands to reason in my thoughts that if we fix the gas issue, we fix some of the electricity problem.
If fact, if we make gas supply cheap enough, then it would make sense to dramatically increase the gas fueled electricity generation.
I think fix Australia’s energy future will come via a rational 25-Year Plan and this will ensure that we will have an energy centric future that’s worth being excited about.
Australia currently stands at a crossroads in its energy future. With growing concerns about energy security, rising costs, and social impacts, there is an urgent need for a comprehensive, long-term strategy to address these challenges.
My 25-year plan outlines a bold vision for Australia’s energy sector, aiming to secure energy independence, drive economic growth, and pave the way for a sustainable future.
By leveraging our natural resources, investing in cutting-edge technologies, and gradually transitioning to cleaner energy sources, this plan seeks to transform Australia’s energy landscape.
From immediate actions to boost natural gas production to long-term investments in nuclear power and waste-to-energy solutions, each step is designed to build upon the last, creating a robust and diversified energy portfolio.
Below is a brief overview of Australia’s current energy challenges with the key initiatives identified as well as the timelines.
Short-Term Gas Requirements & Solutions (0-5 years).
Immediate activation of the planned 850 wells at the Narrabri Gas Project but on the one condition that all of this gas is for the domestic market, which will provide 150TJ per day and I think this project should be expanded to produce from over 1,000 wells.
At other sites around Australia, we should open up an additional 7,000 additional flowing natural gas wells purely for the domestic market which will roughly give us an additional 440 PJ of gas.
At the same time as this, we need to start connecting more homes to natural gas supply, we should target an additional 2 million homes being plumbed up to natural gas supply.
Then at least 1 million of these homes being using their gas supply to fuel Bluegen Power Cells and that power can be fed into the grid 24/7.
It costs around $1,200 to get natural gas connected to your home and the government will need to start heavily subsidizing these costs to make sure it will happen.
This will provide the electricity grid with a massive boost of 13 GW as each unit can provide 13 MW per year (1.5Kw/hr) x 1,000,000 = 13 gigawatts and I would allow 20 Billion for this. The state and federal governments will have to heavily subsidize this just as they are doing with wind and solar projects.
Then we need to start making power from our poop, leverage existing local area infrastructure to convert 300 sewerage plants into biogas recovery plants and this will roughly put an additional 19 PJ of gas into the gas network. Allow $7 million per instance for this and around 2.1 Billion in total
Medium-Term Power Generation Solutions (5-10 years).
1. Construction of 10 Combined Cycle Gas-Fired plants (20GW total), allow 4 Billion per Plant for a total of 40 Billion.
2. Addition of 10 Ultra-Supercritical Coal-Fired plants (26GW total), allow 5.5 Billion per plant for a total of 55 Billion.
Long-Term Nuclear Power Solutions (10-25 years).
1. Development of 8 Gen3+ AP1000 Nuclear Reactors (open fuel cycle)
2. Implementation of 10 Fast Neutron Nuclear Reactors (closed fuel cycles) as they will be paired with Pyroprocessing Plants for the spent fuel.
Waste To Energy Solutions (7-25 years).
All rubbish dumps (refuse centres) in Australia need to be modified to incorporate Sierra Energy FastOx Gasification Plants and CAT-HTR chemical recycling of plastics plants.
Fast Ox Gasification is a waste-to-energy technology developed by Sierra Energy. It’s designed to convert various types of waste into clean energy and other valuable products as follows:
1. The use high-temperature gasification to break down waste.
2. They operate at temperatures around 4,000°F (2,200°C).
3. They can process nearly any type of waste, including municipal solid waste, medical waste, and hazardous waste.
The Process:
1. Waste is fed into a modified blast furnace.
2. Oxygen is injected at the bottom, creating a tornado-like vortex.
3. Waste is broken down into molecular components.
4. Resulting syngas can be used for various applications.
The Outputs:
1. Syngas (primarily hydrogen and carbon monoxide).
2. Inert stone (can be used in construction).
3. Molten metal (can be recycled).
There are some great applications for Syngas:
Electricity Generation from FastOx Gasification Syngas:
1. Gas Engine Generators
a. Direct use of syngas in specially designed engines.
b. Typical capacity: 1-20 MW per unit.
c. Advantages: High efficiency, flexible operation, scalable.
d. Examples: Jenbacher, Wärtsilä, Caterpillar gas engines.
2. Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT)
a. For larger scale operations (>50 MW).
b. Gas turbine coupled with steam turbine for higher efficiency.
c. Advantages: High overall efficiency, suitable for baseload power.
3. Combined Heat and Power (CHP)
a. Utilizes waste heat for additional energy efficiency.
b. Ideal for industrial applications or district heating.
c. Can achieve total system efficiencies of 80%+.
4. Fuel Cells
a. High electrical efficiency (up to 60%).
b. Low emissions.
c. Suitable for smaller scale (100 kW – 3 MW).
d. Examples: Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFC), in particular, the Bluegen Fuel Cells.
5. Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC).
a. Combines gasification with combined cycle power generation.
b. Suitable for large-scale operations (>100 MW).
c. Higher efficiency than conventional coal plants.
Liquid Fuel Production From Syngas:
Syngas can be converted into liquid fuels through a process called Fischer-Tropsch synthesis.
Diesel is one of the main types of fuel that can be produced, other potential fuel products include synthetic petrol, jet fuel and methanol.
Diesel Production is via the Fischer-Tropsch process can be optimized to produce a high-quality, clean-burning diesel fuel.
This synthetic diesel is often referred to as “Fischer-Tropsch diesel” or “synthetic diesel.”
The synthetic diesel produced through this process is typically very clean-burning and it often has a higher cetane number than conventional diesel, which can lead to better engine performance.
The fuel is virtually sulfur-free, which reduces harmful emissions.
Hydrogen Production Via Syngas.
Syngas is an excellent feedstock for hydrogen production as follows:
1. Water-Gas Shift Reaction.
a. Primary method for hydrogen production from syngas.
b. Chemical reaction: CO + H2O ⇌ CO2 + H2.
c. Converts carbon monoxide and water vapor to hydrogen and carbon dioxide.
d. Usually conducted in two stages: high-temperature shift and low-temperature shift.
2. Pressure Swing Adsorption (PSA):
a. Used to purify the hydrogen after the water-gas shift reaction.
b. Separates hydrogen from other gases based on molecular characteristics.
c. Can achieve very high purity hydrogen (99.9%+).
3. Membrane Separation:
a. Alternative or complement to PSA.
b. Uses selective membranes to separate hydrogen from other gases.
c. Can be more energy-efficient than PSA in some cases.
4. Steam Methane Reforming (if syngas contains methane):
a. Can be used if the syngas contains significant methane.
b. Reacts methane with steam to produce more hydrogen.
c. Often combined with the water-gas shift reaction.
5. Partial Oxidation:
a. Can be used to produce more syngas from heavier hydrocarbons in the initial syngas.
b. This syngas can then undergo water-gas shift reaction.
6. Key Advantages:
a. Syngas from waste gasification provides a renewable source of hydrogen.
b. Process can be integrated with the gasification plant for efficiency.
c. Hydrogen production can be scaled based on demand and syngas availability.
Environmental benefits Of FastOx Gasification Plants:
1. Near-zero emissions.
2. Diverts waste from landfills.
3. Produces renewable energy.
Capacity:
1. Modular design.
2. Can process 20-500 tons of waste per day, depending on the unit size.
CAT-HTR/ Chemical Recycling Of Plastics Plants.
The CAT-HTR (Catalytic Hydrothermal Reactor) technology was originally invented by Licella, an Australian company.
Licella was founded in 2007 and is based in Sydney, Australia. The company was co-founded by Dr. Len Humphreys and Professor Thomas Maschmeyer from the University of Sydney.
They developed the CAT-HTR technology as a way to convert various types of biomass and waste plastics into bio-crude oil and other valuable chemicals.
The development of this technology began in the early 2000s, with the first patents filed around 2007-2008.
Licella has since continued to refine and scale up the technology, partnering with various companies around the world to commercialize it.
Whilst Licella pioneered this specific incarnation of the technology, the broader concept of hydrothermal liquefaction has been studied and developed by various researchers and companies over the years.
Licella’s innovation was in developing a particularly effective catalytic process and reactor design that made the technology more commercially viable for treating waste plastics and biomass.
Mura’s HydroPRS technology is a collaboration between Licella and UK-based company Mura Technology.
Mura has exclusive rights to the CAT-HTR platform for plastic recycling in Europe and key global markets and IQRenew has the exclusive rights for this Platform in Australia and New Zealand.
This is a good example of how innovative technologies often start in one place (in this case, Australia) and then spread globally through partnerships and licensing agreements.
Both CAT-HTR and HydroPRS use a process called hydrothermal liquefaction to break down plastic waste into reusable materials. This process involves using high temperature, high pressure water, and often catalysts to convert plastic polymers back into their original chemical components.
The main steps of the CAT-HTR process are:
1. Preparation: Plastic waste is sorted, cleaned, and shredded.
2. Reaction: The shredded plastic is mixed with water and subjected to high temperature (around 300-500°C) and high pressure (up to 250 bar).
3. Separation: The resulting products are separated into different fractions.
The main outputs of these processes are:
1. Oils: These can be refined into fuels or used as feedstock for new plastics.
2. Gases: Primarily methane and hydrogen, which can be used for energy production.
3. Solid residues: These can include minerals and metals that were part of the original plastic products.
Electricity Generation:
1. The Syngas produced can be used directly in gas turbines (various capacities), gas engine driven Generators such as the Wartsilla 50SG and produce up to 20MSW, or Bluegen Power Cells (1.5KW) to generate electricity.
2. The plasticrude produced can be refined into diesel that can be used in diesel engine driven electrical generators such as the Wartsilla 46TS-DF to produce up to 20MW.
Fuel Production:
The plasticrude produced can be refined into various fuels including diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel.
Chemical feedstock:
Plasticrude can be used as feedstock to produce new plastics, effectively closing the loop on plastic recycling.
Article Costing Summary.
The costs of our current energy policies are significant.
Australia currently consumes around 1,600 petajoules of gas per year, with costs reaching $24 per gigajoule.
This results in an annual cost of $38.4 billion for natural gas alone.
In contrast, the annual cost of electricity generation is estimated to be around $19 billion. Addressing the high cost of natural gas could significantly reduce total energy costs.
A prudent 25-year strategy centred on a mix of natural gas, biogas, synthetic gas, and other traditional baseload power sources could reduce these costs and ensure a stable energy future.
Article Power Generation Summary.
A diverse energy strategy is critical to Australia’s future. Short-term solutions include activating planned gas wells and expanding natural gas infrastructure.
Medium-term solutions include building combined cycle gas-fired and ultra-supercritical coal-fired plants.
Long-term strategies should prioritise nuclear power development and waste-to-energy solutions.
Each of these steps is intended to create a strong and diverse energy portfolio that promotes energy security, economic growth, and sustainability.
Conclusion.
Australia is at a watershed moment in its energy future. To ensure energy independence, economic growth, and sustainability, a comprehensive long-term strategy is required.
We can transform Australia’s energy landscape by leveraging our natural resources, investing in cutting-edge technology, and transitioning to cleaner fuel sources.
Immediate actions to increase natural gas production, combined with long-term investments in nuclear power and waste-to-energy solutions, will result in a more resilient and diverse energy portfolio.
This 25-year plan lays out a clear path for Australia’s energy future, both sustainable and prosperous.
